Hemon Vongprachith
In the high-stakes world of Wall Street, Bill Ackman has always stood out — not just for his bold bets, but for his unwavering conviction. As we move through the turbulence of 2025, with sticky inflation, choppy geopolitics, and artificial intelligence redrawing industry lines, many investors are asking: “What would Ackman do?”
The Pershing Playbook: A Quick Recap
Bill Ackman, founder and CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management, is no stranger to market drama. From shorting bond insurers pre-2008, to the unforgettable Herbalife battle, and the prescient COVID-19 credit hedge that netted $2.6 billion, Ackman has built a reputation on contrarian courage and concentrated bets.
But 2025 is no ordinary year.
Inflation remains elevated above the Fed’s 2% target, AI-driven productivity is disrupting traditional industries, and the Fed is treading lightly between rate cuts and recession triggers. Add to this China’s economic slowdown, unpredictable energy markets, and tech stocks trading at sky-high multiples — the investment terrain is both thrilling and treacherous.
What Would Ackman Do?
dissect the playbook Bill might deploy — not by guessing, but by aligning with his known principles.
1. Bet Big — But Only When It’s Obvious
Ackman doesn’t scatter. He concentrates.
In 2025, he’d likely zero in on sectors where pricing power, structural tailwinds, and moats converge. Think AI infrastructure, defense contractors, or premium consumer brands that can outpace inflation. A likely candidate? A firm like ASML, powering the semiconductors behind every AI boom. Or a company like Chipotle, which he already loves — high margins, pricing flexibility, and scalable growth.
Ackman often looks for businesses with durable competitive advantages and predictable cash flows. In an uncertain macro, predictability is gold.
2. Hedge with Precision, Not Panic
In 2020, Ackman turned a $27 million bet into $2.6 billion by buying credit protection against corporate defaults — just weeks before markets plunged.
In 2025, while we’re not in another pandemic, economic crosswinds might lead him to hedge again. His tools? Possibly options on long-duration Treasuries or credit default swaps on overleveraged corporates — a way to monetize market overconfidence.
But remember: he only hedges when he sees a fundamental mispricing. Panic is not in the Pershing vocabulary.
3. Lean Into the Structural Winners
Ackman has long been bullish on businesses that reshape how we live. Think about his 2023 SPAC deal with Universal Music Group — a nod to intellectual property, global consumer demand, and timeless content.
In 2025, he might be eyeing education tech, AI-driven logistics, or green energy enablers like nuclear or hydrogen. The key? Secular trends, not cyclical hopes.
4. Speak Up, Move Markets
Ackman doesn’t sit quietly. Whether on X (formerly Twitter) or CNBC, his voice moves markets. In 2025, expect him to continue using his platform to challenge central banks, expose corporate missteps, or rally public opinion around his positions.
Already this year, he’s criticized the Fed for being slow to cut rates and warned about underestimating geopolitical risks. If history is a guide, he’ll say what others fear to, and sometimes be right before the market catches on.
Final Thought: Courage in Concentration
Bill Ackman is not infallible — no investor is. His Valeant saga was a cautionary tale of anchoring bias and reputational overreach. But what makes him relevant in 2025 is not perfection. It’s his clarity of conviction.
While the average investor chases trends, Ackman dissects fundamentals. While the market frets over the Fed’s next move, he positions for the next decade.
So if you’re wondering, “What would Ackman do?” — the answer is:
He’d think independently, bet boldly, and stick with the winners.
And in 2025’s uncertain market, that might just be the smartest move of all.
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